A new poll reveals bipartisan opposition to counting foreign citizens in House apportionment formulas, placing fresh pressure on Chief Justice John Roberts as the Commerce Department weighs a rule change that could reshape congressional representation for decades.

The survey shows most Americans, including a majority of Democrats, support limiting seat allocations to U.S. citizens only. The finding undercuts arguments from open-borders advocates who claim only Republicans want to exclude noncitizens from the population totals that determine how many House members each state receives.

A 2019 Decision Revisited

Chief Justice Roberts authored a contentious June 2019 opinion blocking the Trump administration's first attempt to add a citizenship question to the census. Writing for a splintered majority, Roberts ruled the question itself was constitutional but faulted the process the administration followed, a decision conservatives called judicial overreach that substituted the Court's judgment for executive authority.

That ruling prevented officials from gathering data needed to exclude noncitizens when drawing district lines. Roberts' reasoning satisfied neither side of the debate. Liberals celebrated blocking the question while conservatives accused the chief justice of inventing procedural objections to reach a preferred political outcome.

Now, with polling showing even Democratic voters want citizenship status to matter for representation, Roberts and his colleagues face renewed scrutiny over whether foreign nationals living in the United States should give their host states more congressional power.

Ten Million Unauthorized Residents

The Pew Research Center estimates roughly 10.5 million unauthorized immigrants lived in the United States as of 2021. Those individuals are currently counted for apportionment purposes, meaning states with high noncitizen populations gain House seats at the expense of states with fewer foreign residents.

House Republicans voted in 2024 to exclude unauthorized immigrants from apportionment calculations, though the measure died in the Democratic-controlled Senate. Critics of the current system argue foreign citizens should not influence American representation, while defenders claim the Constitution's text requires counting all persons regardless of status.

Legal scholars remain divided on whether excluding noncitizens would violate constitutional requirements. The Census Bureau has historically counted everyone within U.S. borders when conducting the decennial census that determines each state's delegation size.

The bipartisan polling results suggest Roberts may face political fallout regardless of how the Court rules if the issue reaches the justices again. Democrats who traditionally defend immigrant rights now confront voters in their own party who question why foreigners should affect legislative power distribution.

For Republicans, the data validates longstanding claims that immigration policy directly impacts political representation. GOP lawmakers argue Democrats benefit from high noncitizen populations in blue states, creating incentives to oppose border enforcement and citizenship verification measures.

The Commerce Department's pending decision on whether to change apportionment rules could render another Supreme Court showdown inevitable. If Roberts sides again with those who oppose citizenship-based counting, he will do so knowing most Americans across party lines disagree with his position.